![]() ![]() That is, the probability is formed according to available information, curated statistics, past events, personal bias, subjective units of analysis, power/political/management influences and the overall accuracy of the method and practitioner. Moreover, what presents as a single representative line for either probability or consequence is in fact a composite of multiple conceptual, perceived and curated 'lines'. Especially when imagining or forecasting the future.because no one knows with any degree of assurance or accuracy what will/will not definitely occur or change. You can't walk out onto the street, into a room or into a forest and find either a physical representation of probability or consequence, let alone lines on the ground, on a wall or in the sky where these imagined lines interest with any degree of consistency, frequency of reliability. In reality, lines of probability and consequence exist in your imagination. (1984) Low Probability, High Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies, Springer Science, p.1 " no source of information should be overlooked if it can be used to more accurately assess the frequency of low-probability events" Because no one person, nor organisation, including governments, have all the information and intelligence needed to form a complete picture or totally infallible risk forecast. (2022) Risk Science: An introduction, Routeledge, p.13Įspecially when addressing or calculating complex global, national, organisational or societal factors. "probability- based metrics have strong limitations in capturing all relevant aspects of risk. "Īven, T. (2003) Risk and Morality, University of Toronto Press, p.16īut greater consideration, understanding and scrutiny needs to be apportioned to how risk models, including probability/consequence vectors, are constructed, along with inherent flaws, errors and false beliefs. Uncertainty resides in the values, interests, and intentions of others in the system"Įricson, R. Furthermore, uncertainty often increases as action is taken under descriptions of risk, because risk is interactive: it is conditional and continuous in response to attitudes and behaviour of the participants in the risk communication system. Yet people require knowledge of risk as a capacity for action, to feel that they are taming chance even as they are taking it. As a probability statement, risk calculations can only make uncertain knowledge claims. #risk expresses the urge to address uncertainties and the fears they generate. The illusion of control permeates risk management practices, graphs, numbers and forecasts. The Royal Society (1992) Risk: Analysis, perception and management, Report of the Royal Society Study Group, p.2 ![]() Both of these are subject to uncertainties related to a lack of precision in models or random variables". ".defined concepts are needed for embracing especially probabilities and consequences. This includes the mapping of risk, based entirely upon two factors, such as probability and consequence. The pursuit of confidence models ultimately seeks to offset uncertainty and seem like remaining in control or taming one's external world and internal tensions. (2003) Foundations of Risk Analysis: A knowledge and decision-orientated perspective, Wiley, p.62 In other words, very simple models and statements routinely seek to summarise and explain risk, uncertainty, harm, happen-chance, preparation and naturally/frequently occurring phenomena.īut how much scrutiny or attention is apportioned to understanding how these seemingly magical, all-knowing and unassailable measurements of the natural world and complex human decision-making were created? "probability is a subjective measure of uncertainty"Īven, T. Great decisions, choices and investments are then predicated upon these 'risk values', often the sum of drawing lines of probability and consequence on a chart or graph. That is, the understanding and gravity of risk are formed by adding, multiplying or plotting at least two factors which in turn inform risk. Confidence, arguments and beliefs in matters relating to 'risk' are routinely the product of some attempt to objectively calculate the number, value or rating of one or more risks. ![]()
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